The ecological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crime trends in Kerman Province of Iran

Abstract

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted crime rates in Kerman province, Iran, revealing divergent patterns compared to global trends. This ecological study utilized the Poisson regression model and interrupted time-series Poisson regression model to analyze data collected from the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization (ILMO) database and the Kerman Criminal Investigation Department of Police database, focusing on theft, conflicts, and homicide rates in this region. Our findings indicate that in 2020, the incidence rate ratio of conflicts increased compared to previous years. Before the pandemic, thefts were on the rise, while homicides were decreasing. However, with the onset of the pandemic, thefts initially decreased, and homicides experienced a notable increase. Subsequently, both thefts and homicides showed a declining trend. By the end of 2020, thefts were significantly lower than expected based on pre-pandemic data, while homicides were slightly higher. Initial fluctuations in crime rates may be related to quarantine measures and the challenges faced during the pandemic, while subsequent changes might be influenced by governmental interventions. Understanding the complex relationship between public health emergencies and criminal activities is crucial for informing policymaking and crime prevention efforts.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Crime
• Pandemics
• Homicide
• Conflict
• Theft