Fusion Modeling Method of Car-Following Characteristics

Abstract

Car-following model is indispensable to evaluate the characteristics of car-following behaviors. Through an analysis and comparison of data-driven and theoretically driven car-following models, it shows that the data-driven model has poor interpretability and high quality of training data set is required, while for the theoretical-driven model, it is unable to describe the individualized features and models of the driver so as to a low model accuracy. To solve the problem, a novel modelling method is proposed using adaptive Kalman filter algorithm to integrate the long-short-time memory neural network (LSTM) data-driven model with the IDM theoretical-driven model to build the car-following model. Test results of real driving data from a single driver prove that the fusion car-following model has higher accuracy than a single model, while at the same time highlighting the driver's personality compared to the IDM model. Besides, it improves the generalization ability of the traditional data model, which is reflected by better fitting in the extreme case (for example, the stable state when the acceleration, velocity is zero). Finally, the trajectory simulation results show that the proposed integrated data-driven car-following model can better simulate the micro-traffic behavior of car following.

Keywords

• Car-following characteristic
• LSTM
• IDM
• adaptive Kalman filter
• fusion modelling