Potential risks of invasive alien plant species on agriculture under climate change scenarios in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) have had a significant impact on agriculture in many countries in the world. Climatic suitability maps can be used to assess the vulnerability of agricultural areas for potential plant invasions. We used climatic suitability heat maps of IAPS to examine how potential climatic suitability for multiple IAPS invasion changes in eight agricultural land-use types in Sri Lanka under climate change scenarios for 2050. The findings of the study revealed that all evaluated agricultural land-use types are potentially vulnerable to invasion by different numbers of IAPS. In the majority of land-use types, the climatic suitability for multiple IAPS was predicted to increase under climate change scenarios. Out of all land-use types, coconut grown areas are expected to have the greatest suitability increase for more than three IAPS. Nearly all paddy lands were predicted to become suitable for two serious aquatic invaders (Eichhornia crassipes and Salvinia molesta) under current climatic conditions. However, a noticeable reduction in climatic suitability for IAPS was predicted in paddy lands by 2050. The study provides useful information that can be used by policy-makers to develop effective control and management strategies against the establishment of IAPS in agricultural land-uses in Sri Lanka.

Keywords

• Future climate scenarios
• Climatic suitability
• MaxEnt
• Multiple plant invasions
• Potential impacts on agriculture