The Influence of Climate Feedbacks on Regional Hydrological Changes Under Global Warming

Abstract

Abstract The influence of climate feedbacks on regional hydrological changes under warming is poorly understood. Here, a moist energy balance model (MEBM) with a Hadley Cell parameterization is used to isolate the influence of climate feedbacks on changes in zonal‐mean precipitation‐minus‐evaporation (P − E) under greenhouse‐gas forcing. It is shown that cloud feedbacks act to narrow bands of tropical P − E and increase P − E in the deep tropics. The surface‐albedo feedback shifts the location of maximum tropical P − E and increases P − E in the polar regions. The intermodel spread in the P − E changes associated with feedbacks arises mainly from cloud feedbacks, with the lapse‐rate and surface‐albedo feedbacks playing important roles in the polar regions. The P − E change associated with cloud feedback locking in the MEBM is similar to that of a climate model with inactive cloud feedbacks. This work highlights the unique role that climate feedbacks play in causing deviations from the “wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier” paradigm.

Keywords

• climate change
• feedbacks
• hydrological change
• energetic constraints
• precipitation
• global climate models