The Impact of Financial and Energy Sanctions on Output Gap in Iran

Abstract

Analyzing the effects of energy and financial sanctions on the output gap of the economy of Iran is the aim of this study. To do so, a New-Keynesian DSGE model is used to design the structure of model. In this approach, by defining a shock, energy and financial sanctions is included into objective functions of the economic agents whereby the behavior of households in subsectors, consumption, capital accumulation and investment spending, and also the behavior of firm in production function and marginal cost are affected by energy and financial sanctions since 2011. The data in this study is quarterly for the period 1989 – 2014. To this end the output gap is computed by Kalman filter approach and other variables are filtered by Hodrick – Prescott method. Then by using Bayesian methods, the structural parameters are estimated, where, the results from MCMC Statistic, Gelman - Brooks statistic and comparing prior and posterior distribution functions indicate that the results are credible. Finally, the effects of energy and financial sanctions on the output gap and other variables have been analyzed by stochastic simulation. The results from simulation reveals that by imposing economic sanctions, investment spending, total consumption and the process of capital accumulation declines and the costs associated with output increased thereby the output gap in economy tends to increase. Moreover, from the results of variance decomposition, investment and inflation rate is more influenced by sanctions than other shocks.

Keywords

• economic sanctions
• the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (dsge) model
• output gap
• simulation