An Optimized Machine Learning Model Accurately Predicts In-Hospital Outcomes at Admission to a Cardiac Unit

Abstract

Risk stratification at the time of hospital admission is of paramount significance in triaging the patients and providing timely care. In the present study, we aim at predicting multiple clinical outcomes using the data recorded during admission to a cardiac care unit via an optimized machine learning method. This study involves a total of 11,498 patients admitted to a cardiac care unit over two years. Patient demographics, admission type (emergency or outpatient), patient history, lab tests, and comorbidities were used to predict various outcomes. We employed a fully connected neural network architecture and optimized the models for various subsets of input features. Using 10-fold cross-validation, our optimized machine learning model predicted mortality with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.967 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.963–0.972), heart failure AUC of 0.838 (CI: 0.825–0.851), ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction AUC of 0.832 (CI: 0.821–0.842), pulmonary embolism AUC of 0.802 (CI: 0.764–0.84), and estimated the duration of stay (DOS) with a mean absolute error of 2.543 days (CI: 2.499–2.586) of data with a mean and median DOS of 6.35 and 5.0 days, respectively. Further, we objectively quantified the importance of each feature and its correlation with the clinical assessment of the corresponding outcome. The proposed method accurately predicts various cardiac outcomes and can be used as a clinical decision support system to provide timely care and optimize hospital resources.

Keywords

• machine learning
• mortality
• duration of stay
• heart failure
• STEMI
• pulmonary embolism