Enhancing Suicide Risk Prediction With Polygenic Scores in Psychiatric Emergency Settings: Prospective Study

Abstract

BackgroundDespite growing interest in the clinical translation of polygenic risk scores (PRSs), it remains uncertain to what extent genomic information can enhance the prediction of psychiatric outcomes beyond the data collected during clinical visits alone. ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the clinical utility of incorporating PRSs into a suicide risk prediction model trained on electronic health records (EHRs) and patient-reported surveys among patients admitted to the emergency department. MethodsStudy participants were recruited from the psychiatric emergency department at Massachusetts General Hospital. There were 333 adult patients of European ancestry who had high-quality genotype data available through their participation in the Mass General Brigham Biobank. Multiple neuropsychiatric PRSs were added to a previously validated suicide prediction model in a prospective cohort enrolled between February 4, 2015, and March 13, 2017. Data analysis was performed from July 11, 2022, to August 31, 2023. Suicide attempt was defined using diagnostic codes from longitudinal EHRs combined with 6-month follow-up surveys. The clinical risk score for suicide attempt was calculated from an ensemble model trained using an EHR-based suicide risk score and a brief survey, and it was subsequently used to define the baseline model. We generated PRSs for depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, suicide attempt, and externalizing traits using a Bayesian polygenic scoring method for European ancestry participants. Model performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), area under the precision-recall curve, and positive predictive values. ResultsOf the 333 patients (n=178, 53.5% male; mean age 36.8, SD 13.6 years; n=333, 100% non-Hispanic and n=324, 97.3% self-reported White), 28 (8.4%) had a suicide attempt within 6 months. Adding either the schizophrenia PRS or all PRSs to the baseline model resulted in the numerically highest discrimination (AUC 0.86, 95% CI 0.73-0.99) compared to the baseline model (AUC 0.84, 95% Cl 0.70-0.98). However, the improvement in model performance was not statistically significant. ConclusionsIn this study, incorporating genomic information into clinical prediction models for suicide attempt did not improve patient risk stratification. Larger studies that include more diverse participants are required to validate whether the inclusion of psychiatric PRSs in clinical prediction models can enhance the stratification of patients at risk of suicide attempts.