The Direct Radiative Effect of CO2 Increase on Summer Precipitation in North America

Abstract

Abstract Precipitation changes in full response to CO2 increase are widely studied but confidence in future projections remains low. Mechanistic understanding of the direct radiative effect of CO2 on precipitation changes, independent from CO2‐induced SST changes, is therefore necessary. Utilizing global atmospheric models, we identify robust summer precipitation decreases across North America in response to direct CO2 forcing. We find that spatial distribution of CO2 forcing at land surface is likely shaped by climatological distribution of water vapor and clouds. This, coupled with local feedback processes, changes in convection, and moisture supply resulting from CO2‐induced circulation changes, could determine North American hydroclimate changes. In central North America, increasing CO2 may decrease summertime precipitation by warming the surface and inducing dry advection into the region to reduce moisture supply. Meanwhile, for the southwest and the east, CO2‐induced shift of subtropical highs generates wet advection, which might mitigate the drying effect from warming.

Keywords

• CO2 direct effect
• precipitation
• circulation changes
• moisture changes
• radiative forcing