Different Characteristics and Drivers of the Extraordinary Pakistan Rainfall in July and August 2022

Abstract

The unprecedented and long-lasting abnormal monsoon rainfall attacked Pakistan in the summer of 2022, causing severe flooding. This study investigated the sub-seasonal characteristics and mechanisms of this distinctively extreme precipitation event. The historical rainfall in July and August and extreme precipitation mainly occurred in northern Pakistan. Both the monthly rainfall in July and August 2022 and the extreme precipitation during the summer were far exceeding the historical record and involved unique spatial distribution. The rainfall in July 2022 is nationwide and mainly located in northern Pakistan, while the rainfall in August and extreme precipitation occurred in southern Pakistan. Different physical processes are responsible for the precipitation in July and August 2022. In July, the South Asian high (SAH) and Iranian high extended eastward. Meanwhile, the anticyclonic circulation anomalies occurred in northwestern Pakistan and the easterly winds enhanced in the south side of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which strengthened water vapor transporting from the Bay of Bengal and cooperated with the cyclonic system over the Arabian Sea to enhance the precipitation over Pakistan. In August, the SAH further extended eastward and the Western Pacific Subtropical High extended westward to the TP. Meanwhile, the European blocking (EB) developed, and a deep trough appeared over northwestern Pakistan. This weakened the easterly flow along southern TP but enhanced the southerly flow accompanying the cyclone over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, and thus guided the water vapor transporting to southern Pakistan and enhanced the precipitation. The extreme precipitation in July was mainly attributed to the unusually strong Indian monsoon, while the extreme precipitation in August was the result of a combination of the Indian monsoon and EB. The study provided important information about extreme precipitation in Pakistan, which will help policymakers take measures to deal with the effects of flooding.

Keywords

• extreme precipitation
• sub-seasonal characteristics
• Pakistan
• Indian monsoon
• European blocking