Estimate population projections in the metropolitan area of the Valley of Mexico. Years 2010-2020-2050

Abstract

The task of projecting the number of inhabitants is based on rigorous calculations, on prior knowledge about the behavior of demographic variables that imply population entries or exits. The objective of this article was to present a statistical method for estimating demographic projections, showing its methodological and technical aspects, so that non-demographers have the necessary elements for their estimation. The above was achieved through the use of the Logistics Function, taking the reader step by step in order to make the procedure to follow clear; Subsequently, for this purpose, a projection exercise is carried out using data for the young population (15 to 29 years old) in the Metropolitan Zone of the Valley of Mexico (ZMVM) as an example. The results show that in 2050 the number of young people in the ZMVM will reach 5.2 million, which corresponds to a decrease of 0.76%. This indicates that, within approximately 30 years, the number of young people in the ZMVM will still be high (22.27% of the total population of said area). It is concluded that by using the logistic function an acceptable estimate can be obtained in population projections, in general and by large age groups.

Keywords

• population projections
• logistic function
• mexico