Early identification of high-risk patients with acute recurrent pancreatitis progression to chronic pancreatitis

Abstract

Introduction The aim of the study was to develop a simple tool for early identification of high-risk patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) progression to chronic pancreatitis (CP) in primary hospitals or outpatient clinics. Material and methods This retrospective cohort study included 265 patients with RAP. Results A nomogram for RAP progression to CP was developed and the C-index of the model was 0.817 (95% CI: 0.72–0.91). Patients were divided into two risk groups according to the nomogram prediction scores and a higher proportion of patients in the high-risk group progressed to CP. Conclusions The nomogram provided a means of predicting which patients were at high risk of progression to CP.

Keywords

• recurrent acute pancreatitis
• chronic pancreatitis
• risk factor
• nomogram