A Collision Risk Assessment Method for Aircraft on the Apron Based on Petri Nets

Abstract

The airport apron is a high-risk area for aircraft collisions due to its heavy operational load and high aircraft density. Currently, existing quantitative models for apron collision risk provide limited consideration and classification of risk areas. In response, this paper proposes a Petri net-based method for assessing aircraft collision risk. The method predicts the probability of aircraft reaching different areas at different times based on operational data, enabling the calculation of collision risks within the Petri net framework. This approach highlights areas with potential collision risks and provides a classification evaluation. Subsequently, aircraft path re-planning is carried out to reduce collision risks. The model simplifies the complex operations of the apron system, making the calculation process clearer. The results show that, during the mid-phase of aircraft taxiing, there is a significant deviation between the actual and ideal positions of aircraft. Areas with high taxiway occupancy are more prone to collision risks. On peak days, due to relatively high flight volumes, the frequency of collision risks is 14% higher than on regular days, with an average risk increase of 23.3%, and the risks are more concentrated. Therefore, reducing collision risks through path planning becomes more challenging. It is recommended to focus attention on areas with high taxiway occupancy during peak periods and carefully plan routes to ensure apron safety.

Keywords

• apron operation
• collision risk
• risk assessment
• trajectory prediction
• risk area
• Petri net