An Early Warning System to Predict Rainfall Event in Attica, Greece: The Case Study of 30 September 2018

Abstract

A forward advection scheme is incorporated in an advanced data assimilation model to provide very short-term predictions. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) is implemented in the nowcasting mode in a case study of extreme precipitation event over Attica, Greece. The LAPS assimilated remote sensing data from satellite retrievals and XPOL radar precipitation measurements to produce objective analyses alongside their nowcasts in a forecast window up to 3 h. The results indicate that the assimilation of remote sensing data can increase the short-term precipitation predictability, with varying performance depending on the type and the combination of the assimilated remote sensing data.

Keywords

• nowcasting
• LAPS
• data assimilation
• seamless prediction
• medicane
• weather radar