Clinical Epidemiology (Jul 2019)
The prognosis of patients hospitalized with a first episode of heart failure, validation of two scores: PREDICE and AHEAD
Abstract
Francisco Ruiz-Ruiz,1 Miguel Menéndez-Orenga,2 Francisco J Medrano,3–6 Enrique J Calderón,3–6 David Lora-Pablos,2 Maria Asunción Navarro-Puerto,7 Patricia Rodríguez-Torres,7 Agustín Gómez de la Cámara2,41Department of Internal Medicine, Quiron Hospital, Seville, Spain; 2Research Institute, Clinical Research Unit, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain; 3Service of Internal Medicine, Virgen del Rocio University Hospital, Seville, Spain; 4CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain; 5Instituto de Biomedicina de Sevilla, Department of Health of the Junta de Andalusia/CSIC/University of Seville, Seville, Spain; 6Department of Medicine, University of Seville, Seville, Spain; 7Department of Internal Medicine, Virgen de Valme University Hospital, Seville, SpainPurpose: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, frequent and disabling condition but with a modifiable course and a large potential for improving. The aim of this study was to validate the two available clinical prediction rules for mortality at one year in patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF: PREDICE and AHEAD. The secondary aim was to evaluate in our setting the changes in the clinical pattern of HF in the last decade in patients hospitalized for a first episode of the disease.Patients and methods: A prospective multicenter cohort study, which included 180 patients hospitalized with “de novo” HF was conducted to validate the PREDICE score. Calibration and discrimination measurements were calculated for the PREDICE model and the PREDICE score (using the validation cohort of the PREDICE) and the AHEAD score (using both the development and the validation cohort of the PREDICE).Results: For the PREDICE models, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57–0.79) and the calibration slope 0.65 (95% CI: 0.21–1.20). For the PREDICE score AUC was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.47–0.71) and slope 0.42 (95% CI: −0.20–1.17). For the AHEAD score the AUC was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) and slope 1.38 (95% CI: 0.62–0.73) when used the development cohort of PREDICE and the AUC was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.49–0.67), and slope 0.68 (95% CI: −0.06 to 1.47) when used its validation cohort.Conclusion: The present study shows that the two risk scores available for patients with primo-hospitalization for decompensated HF (PREDICE and AHEAD) are not currently valid for predicting mortality at one-year. In our setting the clinical spectrum of hospitalized patients with new-onset HF has been modified over time. The study underscores the need to validate the prognostic models before clinical implementation.Keywords: heart failure, validation studies as topics, severity of illness index, inpatients
