A new qualitative and quantitative analytical approach for risk management in energy project time-cost trade-off problem under interval type-2 fuzzy uncertainty: A case study in the gas industry

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel risk management approach to develop a Time-Cost Trade-off (TCT) mathematical model under fuzzy uncertainty. In this paper, firstly, a Linear Assignment Method (LAM) is proposed to rank the activities of a project according to their encountering risks when the activities are crashed. Secondly, activities are grouped into different classes in accordance with their risk level so as to concentrate on high-risk activities. Then, a new fuzzy TCT mathematical model considering the risk criterion is presented. In the next step, a quantitative analysis of risks is proposed by Primavera Risk Analysis. Ultimately, risk response strategies are presented, and the results are meticulously scrutinized. Due to more precision in considering uncertainty and advantages of interval type-2 fuzzy set (IT2FS), this fuzzy set is applied throughout the whole methodology. An actual project of a company in the gas industry is adopted to examine the method efficiency.

Keywords

• Time-Cost Trade-off Problems (TCTPs)
• Risk management
• Linear Assignment Method (LAM)
• Qualitative and quantitative risk analysis
• Response strategies
• Interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs)