Establishment and evaluation of a clinical prediction model for cognitive impairment in patients with cerebral small vessel disease

Abstract

Abstract Background There are currently no effective prediction methods for evaluating the occurrence of cognitive impairment in patients with cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD). Aims To investigate the risk factors for cognitive dysfunction in patients with CSVD and to construct a risk prediction model. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 227 patients with CSVD. All patients were assessed by brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) was used to assess cognitive status. In addition, the patient’s medical records were also recorded. The clinical data were divided into a normal cognitive function group and a cognitive impairment group. A MoCA score < 26 (an additional 1 point for education < 12 years) is defined as cognitive dysfunction. Results A total of 227 patients (mean age 66.7 ± 6.99 years) with CSVD were included in this study, of whom 68.7% were male and 100 patients (44.1%) developed cognitive impairment. Age (OR = 1.070; 95% CI = 1.015 ~ 1.128, p < 0.05), hypertension (OR = 2.863; 95% CI = 1.438 ~ 5.699, p < 0.05), homocysteine(HCY) (OR = 1.065; 95% CI = 1.005 ~ 1.127, p < 0.05), lacunar infarct score(Lac_score) (OR = 2.732; 95% CI = 1.094 ~ 6.825, P < 0.05), and CSVD total burden (CSVD_score) (OR = 3.823; 95% CI = 1.496 ~ 9.768, P < 0.05) were found to be independent risk factors for cognitive decline in the present study. The above 5 variables were used to construct a nomogram, and the model was internally validated by using bootstrapping with a C-index of 0.839. The external model validation C-index was 0.867. Conclusions The nomogram model based on brain MR images and clinical data helps in individualizing the probability of cognitive impairment progression in patients with CSVD.

Keywords

• Cerebral small vessel disease
• Cognitive impairment
• Nomogram
• Clinical prediction models
• Neuroimaging