A New Model for Predicting and Dismantling a Complex Terrorist Network

Abstract

The perennial nature of terrorist attacks in recent times has ushered in a new wave of study in the field of terrorism known as social network analysis (SNA). Terrorist groups operate as a social network stealthily to enhance their efficacy rate, thereby making sure their activities are cloaked. This study proposes a new method to uncover and dismantle a terror network by applying a 4-centrality measure. After establishing link prediction using centrality measures, we dismantle the network based on Galton-Watson extinction probability. This study examines the 9/11 incident and measures the link prediction of the M-19 network. In curbing terrorist network activities, the elimination of a highly ranked node in the network is a condition sine qua non. We further examine the lethality of the network as well as network bonding to obtain the degree of cohesiveness, which is a crucial determinant for network survival. Our experimental results indicate that link prediction is vital in uncloaking a terror network, which is the core of counterterrorism.

Keywords

• Modeling terrorist network
• network bonding
• modeling lethality
• terrorist network cohesiveness
• M-19 network
• 4-centrality measures