Predicting Distribution and Range Dynamics of Three Threatened <i>Cypripedium</i> Species under Climate Change Scenario in Western Himalaya

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenic pressure have significantly contributed to the decline of biodiversity worldwide, particularly in mountain ecosystems such as the Himalaya. In addition to being relatively sensitive to disturbances, orchids may also respond more quickly to climate change impacts than other plant species. Because of their complex biology and anthropogenic pressures on their habitat in the Himalayan region, lady’s slipper orchids are considered to be a highly vulnerable group of orchids. In the present study, we examine the effect of climate change on the distribution of three threatened Cypripedium species (Cypripedium cordigerum, Cypripedium elegans, and Cypripedium himalaicum), utilizing ecological niche modeling for present and future climatic scenarios to identify key environmental determinants and population parameters. A community climate system model (CCSM ver. 4) was used to identify suitable distribution areas for future scenarios. Based on the least correlated characteristics of the species bioclimatic, topographical, and physiological characteristics, the species’ climatic niche was determined. According to the results, the true skill statistic (TSS), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and Cohen’s kappa provide more reliable predictions. Precipitation during the wettest month and precipitation during the coldest quarter are the primary climatic variables that influence the distribution of suitable areas. A total of 192 km2 of the area was estimated to be suitable for all three species under current climate conditions. Under future climate conditions, the model predicts a trivial increase in suitable habitat areas with a shift toward the northwest. However, highly suitable habitat areas will be severely diminished. There are currently highly suitable habitats in Tungnath and the Valley of Flowers, but due to climatic factors, the habitats will become unsuitable in the future. Additionally, under future climatic scenarios, viable habitats will be identified for priority conservation to cope with the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities. In light of these findings, conservation methods for the target species may be designed that will be successful and have the potential to prevent local extinctions.

Keywords

• potential distribution
• range expansion
• anthropogenic pressure
• climate change