Heliyon (May 2024)
Assessment of climate change induced rainfall trend and variability with non-parametric and linear approach for Sirajganj district, Bangladesh
Abstract
The monthly and annual trends and variance of rainfall have been studied for five stations in an economically important Bangladeshi district named Sirajganj since 1965 to 2021. Natural disasters have prevalent in Sirajganj which is indispensable to assess. But, several researchers have been normally focused on river bank management and flood risk assessment. However, no extensive research has been conducted on Sirajganj based on non-normally distributed time series meteorological data such as rainfall time series so the current study is very important. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's methods have been used to determine the statistical significance of a positive or negative trend in rainfall data. Also, cumulative sum charts and bootstrapping, one-way ANOVA, Tukey's range tests, and linear regression have been used to discover the incidence of abrupt changes, compare the significant difference in monthly and annual rainfall data, multiple comparisons amidst mentioned stations to find changes, and to investigate the changeover on dry and rainy days, respectively. The analysis showed a statistically significant decreasing trends in monthly and annual rainfall series. As well, changes from positive to negative direction have been recognized in the February, May, July, September, and annual rainfall time sequence. Besides, ANOVA and Tukey's range tests revealed a statistically substantial difference in all monthly and annual rainfall volume excluding January, March, and June. Additionally, these two tests demonstrated momentous differences in all monthly and annual frequency of rainfall categories excepting January and April. However, Linear regression analysis revealed that the number of dry days gradually reduced at the end of the dry winter, though the number of rainy days decreased during the rainy season. As in, the number of rainy days replaces the number of dry days during the dry season and vice versa during the rainy season. Even though, with very few exceptions, the volume of rainfall decreases throughout the year. The outcomes of this research might helpful for implementing the planning and evaluating hydrological projects on Sirajganj district.
