Recurrent Patterns in Dst Time Series

Abstract

This study reports one approach for the classification of magnetic storms into recurrent patterns. A storm event is defined as a local minimum of Dst index. The analysis of Dst index for the period of year 1957 through year 2000 has demonstrated that a large portion of the storm events can be classified into a set of recurrent patterns. In our approach, the classification is performed by seeking a categorization that minimizes thermodynamic free energy which is defined as the sum of classification errors and entropy. The error is calculated as the squared sum of the value differences between events. The classification depends on the noise parameter T that represents the strength of the intrinsic error in the observation and classification process. The classification results would be applicable in space weather forecasting.

Keywords

• Dst index
• recurrent patterns
• storm classification