Prediction of total landslide volume in watershed scale under rainfall events using a probability model

Abstract

This study established a probability model based on the landslide spatial and size probabilities to predict the possible volume and locations of landslides in watershed scale under rainfall events. First, we assessed the landslide spatial probability using a random forest landslide susceptibility model including intrinsic causative factors and extrinsic rainfall factors. Second, we calculated the landslide volume probability using the Pearson type V distribution. Lastly, these probabilities were joined to predict possible landslide volume and locations in the study area, the Taipei Water Source Domain, under rainfall events. The possible total landslide volume in the watershed changed from 1.7 million cubic meter under the event with 2-year recurrence interval to 18.2 million cubic meter under the event with 20-year recurrence interval. Approximately 62% of the total landslide volume triggered by the rainfall events was concentrated in 20% of the slope units. As the recurrence interval of the events increased, the slope units with large landslide volume tended to concentrate in the midstream of Nanshi River subwatershed. The results indicated the probability model posited can be used not only to predict total landslide volume in watershed scale, but also to determine the possible locations of the slope units with large landslide volume.

Keywords

• landslide probability model
• uchiogi empirical model
• total landslide volume
• standard deviational ellipse