Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Jonathan G Palmer; Edward R Cook; Chris S M Turney; Kathy Allen; Pavla Fenwick; Benjamin I Cook; Alison O’Donnell; Janice Lough; Pauline Grierson; Patrick Baker

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002

Environmental Research Letters (Jan 2015)

Drought variability in the eastern Australia and New Zealand summer drought atlas (ANZDA, CE 1500–2012) modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Jonathan G Palmer,
Edward R Cook,
Chris S M Turney,
Kathy Allen,
Pavla Fenwick,
Benjamin I Cook,
Alison O’Donnell,
Janice Lough,
Pauline Grierson,
Patrick Baker

Affiliations

Jonathan G Palmer: Climate Change Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales , Sydney, NSW 2015, Australia
Edward R Cook: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University , Palisades, NY 10964, USA
Chris S M Turney: Climate Change Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales , Sydney, NSW 2015, Australia
Kathy Allen: School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne , Richmond, Victoria, 3121, Australia
Pavla Fenwick: Gondwana Tree-ring Laboratory, P O Box 14, Little River, Canterbury, 7546, New Zealand
Benjamin I Cook: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University , Palisades, NY 10964, USA; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
Alison O’Donnell: Ecosystems Research Group, School of Plant Biology, The University of Western Australia , Crawley, WA 2016, Australia
Janice Lough: Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville MC, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia
Pauline Grierson: Ecosystems Research Group, School of Plant Biology, The University of Western Australia , Crawley, WA 2016, Australia
Patrick Baker: School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne , Richmond, Victoria, 3121, Australia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 10, no. 12
p. 124002

Abstract

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Agricultural production across eastern Australia and New Zealand is highly vulnerable to drought, but there is a dearth of observational drought information prior to CE 1850. Using a comprehensive network of 176 drought-sensitive tree-ring chronologies and one coral series, we report the first Southern Hemisphere gridded drought atlas extending back to CE 1500. The austral summer (December–February) Palmer drought sensitivity index reconstruction accurately reproduces historically documented drought events associated with the first European settlement of Australia in CE 1788, and the leading principal component explains over 50% of the underlying variance. This leading mode of variability is strongly related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation tripole index (IPO), with a strong and robust antiphase correlation between (1) eastern Australia and the New Zealand North Island and (2) the South Island. Reported positive, negative, and neutral phases of the IPO are consistently reconstructed by the drought atlas although the relationship since CE 1976 appears to have weakened.

Published in Environmental Research Letters

ISSN: 1748-9326 (Online)
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Technology: Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering; Geography. Anthropology. Recreation: Environmental sciences; Science: Physics
Website: https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326

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