مخاطرات محیط طبیعی (Aug 2021)
Projected Changes in Iran Temperature Based on Different Scenarios RCP
Abstract
The aim of the current study is spatiotemporal analysis of changes in minimum, maximum and mean air temperature over Iran based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of the fifth report of IPCC. To do this, three datasets have been used: 1) Daily maximum, minimum and mean air temperature data for 42 synoptic stations during 1/1/1979 to 31/12/2005, 2) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data for 26 variables, and 3) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios data during 1/1/2006 to 31/12/2100. The model was calibrated using predictors from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets over the base period 1979–2005. The selected downscaling model structure has been done by a recommended method by Mahmood and Babel (2013) which is a combination of the correlation matrix, partial correlation, and P-value was used. Due to the bias, downscaled temperature data forced by CanESM2 model was corrected using a bias correction technique for each station. Finally, changes in the characteristics of temperature were estimated for the future period (2006–2100) based on the future scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8 compared to the base period (1979–2005). The projected changes were assessed with the nonparametric modified Mann-Kendal trend test and Sen Slope estimator at 95% confidence level. The results showed great reliability of SDSM downscaled model structure and screening of variables. The findings illustrated that minimum, maximum and mean air temperature were projected to increase. The projected increases was larger in semi western part of country. Minimum air temperature projected to increase 0.35, 0.6 and over 1 ℃ based on the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Maximum air temperature increases rapidly after 2070 decade and projected to increase more than 1℃ rather than base period (1979-2005). The projected changes showed that warming of Iran’s air temperature more over 0.5 ℃ after 2040 and reached to 1.5 ℃ by the end of twenty first century.
Keywords
