Monthly and annual rainfall erosivity in Poland: An empirical model including winter snowfall effect

Abstract

Study region: Poland Study focus: This study proposes an empirical model to assess rainfall erosivity in Poland, with a particular focus on incorporating the influence of winter snowfall on soil erosivity. Utilizing a dataset collected from 225 meteorological stations across Poland, the research aims to refine both monthly and annual rainfall erosivity assessments. An important feature of this model is the integration of daily minimum temperatures to adjust erosivity calculations during the winter months, a period typically characterized by lower erosivity due to snowfall, which is less erosive compared to rainfall. New hydrological insights for the region: During the calibration phase of annual rainfall erosivity, the model achieved a high coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.77. Validation results were similar, with an R² of 0.72. Further, the model was assessed for its seasonal performance, revealing significant variations in effectiveness across the year. For example, during the spring and autumn months, the model showed good predictive capabilities with R² values of 0.77 and 0.68, respectively. For winter and summer the R² value were slightly lower, reaching 0.64 and 0.61, respectively. Overall, the model offers a useful tool for predicting erosivity with improved accuracy by accounting for snowfall effects, which can aid in enhancing soil erosion assessments and supporting more informed soil conservation strategies.

Keywords

• Rainfall erosivity
• Soil erosion
• Empirical model
• Snowfall impact
• Erosivity modelling
• Precipitation