Time-Series Power Forecasting for Wind and Solar Energy Based on the SL-Transformer

Abstract

As the urgency to adopt renewable energy sources escalates, so does the need for accurate forecasting of power output, particularly for wind and solar power. Existing models often struggle with noise and temporal intricacies, necessitating more robust solutions. In response, our study presents the SL-Transformer, a novel method rooted in the deep learning paradigm tailored for green energy power forecasting. To ensure a reliable basis for further analysis and modeling, free from noise and outliers, we employed the SG filter and LOF algorithm for data cleansing. Moreover, we incorporated a self-attention mechanism, enhancing the model’s ability to discern and dynamically fine-tune input data weights. When benchmarked against other premier deep learning models, the SL-Transformer distinctly outperforms them. Notably, it achieves a near-perfect R2 value of 0.9989 and a significantly low SMAPE of 5.8507% in wind power predictions. For solar energy forecasting, the SL-Transformer has achieved a SMAPE of 4.2156%, signifying a commendable improvement of 15% over competing models. The experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of the SL-Transformer in wind and solar energy forecasting.

Keywords

• deep learning
• power forecasting
• wind and solar energy
• transformer
• filter