Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Multi-Drug-Resistant Non-Hospital-Acquired Bloodstream Infection

Abstract

Bloodstream infections (BSI) are an increasing cause of admissions to hospitals. Non-hospital-acquired BSI are defined by blood cultures that are positive less than 48 hours after admission, but a relevant difference exists between community-acquired and healthcare-associated (HCA) BSI in terms of risk of multidrug resistance (MDR). We planned a retrospective study in three different cohorts in order to develop and to temporally and spatially validate an easy and rapid prognostic model for identifying MDR non-hospital-acquired (non-HA) BSI. The pathogens most involved in BSI are Staphylococcus spp. and Escherichia coli, responsible for about 75% of all MDR isolated. The model includes age, gender, long-term care facility admission, immunocompromise, any recent invasive procedures and central line placement, recent intravenous treatment and antibiotic treatment. It shows an acceptable performance, especially for intermediate probabilities of MDR infection, with a C-index of 70%. The model was proposed in a nomogram that could allow better targeting of antibiotic therapy for non-HA BSI admitted in hospital. However, it should be further validated to determine its applicability in other populations.

Keywords

• bloodstream infection
• multidrug resistance
• healthcare associated bacteremia
• prognostic models