Climate changes and their impact on selected sectors of the Polish-Saxon border region under RCP8.5 scenario conditions

Abstract

Climate changes are one of the most important factors affecting various spectra of the human activity and natural environment. They can significantly impact technical infrastructure, modify structures of cultivation, and have an influence on species structure. Furthermore, some of the changes may also negatively affect the human organism which consequently influence health and tourism issues. The region of Polish-Saxon border is characterized by a high variability in terms of land use and natural environment. Thus, the problem of climate changes is one of the most important issues in this area. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate changes on the sectors of biodiversity, forestry, agriculture, transport, tourism, and public health, considering the aspects of sensitivity and risk assessment. The results of climate changes indicated observed or projected significant changes in thermal, precipitation, snow and storm conditions. The analysis on sensitivity and risk showed a high spatial variability depending on sector. The northern part of the region is usually endangered in the context of biodiversity and forestry, while the highest risk and sensitivity for tourism are noticed in the mountains. In the case of transport and public health, climate changes can usually affect them in densely populated areas, whereas the central part of the region is most at risk for the sector of agriculture. The results of this research can be a basis for further analysis related to adaptation to climate changes.

Keywords

• climate changes
• sensitivity
• risk assessment
• lower silesia
• saxony