Comparison of climate projections between driving CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and downscaling simulation of RegCM4.4 over China

Abstract

A 151-year (1950–2100) dynamical downscaling simulation over East Asia is conducted by using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4.4 at 25 km grid spacing, which is nested within CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Climate changes over China during the 21st century under the RCP4.5 scenario from CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and RegCM4.4 are analyzed. Both simulations project that continuous warming with large regional variations will occur in the future. The two simulations obtain similar inter-annual fluctuations of regional average warming, with RegCM4.4 obtaining somewhat smaller values than CSIRO-Mk3.6.0. Projected precipitation changes are even more regionally variable than temperature changes. In western China, both models project increased precipitation, while the projections from two models show different regional details in eastern China. In both simulations, projected annual mean precipitation on a national scale does not change significantly due to the contrast changes between dry and wet seasons. To analyze uncertainties of the projected climate change in China, the simulation of RegCM4.4 is compared with a previous simulation of the RegCM3 at the same horizontal resolution. The overall consistency in precipitation change between RegCM3 and RegCM4.4 is projected across western China, while inconsistency is identified in most of eastern China.

Keywords

• Climate change
• RegCM4.4
• China
• RCP4.5