Model Uncertainty for Settlement Prediction on Axially Loaded Piles in Hydraulic Fill Built in Marine Environment

Abstract

Model uncertainty is present in many engineering problems but particularly in those involving geotechnical behavior of pile foundation. A wide range of soil conditions together with simplified numerical models makes it a constant necessity to review the accuracy of the predictions. In this paper, the outputs of some seventy (70) pile axially-loaded tests have been reviewed with a classic numerical model to assess pile deformation. Probabilistic approach has been used to quantify uncertainties coming from soil tests, statistic uncertainty and also from the model itself. In this way, a critical review of the prediction method and a way to quantify its uncertainty is presented. The method is intended to be used in a wide range of engineering problems.

Keywords

• model uncertainty
• reliability
• pile settlement
• piles in granular soil
• base resistance
• skin friction