Cancers (Jul 2024)
International External Validation of Risk Prediction Model of 90-Day Mortality after Gastrectomy for Cancer Using Machine Learning
- Mariagiulia Dal Cero,
- Joan Gibert,
- Luis Grande,
- Marta Gimeno,
- Javier Osorio,
- Maria Bencivenga,
- Uberto Fumagalli Romario,
- Riccardo Rosati,
- Paolo Morgagni,
- Suzanne Gisbertz,
- Wojciech P. Polkowski,
- Lucio Lara Santos,
- Piotr Kołodziejczyk,
- Wojciech Kielan,
- Rossella Reddavid,
- Johanna W. van Sandick,
- Gian Luca Baiocchi,
- Ines Gockel,
- Andrew Davies,
- Bas P. L. Wijnhoven,
- Daniel Reim,
- Paulo Costa,
- William H. Allum,
- Guillaume Piessen,
- John V. Reynolds,
- Stefan P. Mönig,
- Paul M. Schneider,
- Elisenda Garsot,
- Emma Eizaguirre,
- Mònica Miró,
- Sandra Castro,
- Coro Miranda,
- Xavier Monzonis-Hernández,
- Manuel Pera,
- on behalf of the Spanish EURECCA Esophagogastric Cancer Group and the European GASTRODATA Study Group
Affiliations
- Mariagiulia Dal Cero
- Hospital del Mar Research Institute (IMIM), Section of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Hospital del Mar, Department of Surgery, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
- Joan Gibert
- Department of Pathology, Hospital Universitario del Mar, Cancer Research Program, Hospital del Mar Research Institute (IMIM), 08003 Barcelona, Spain
- Luis Grande
- Hospital del Mar Research Institute (IMIM), Section of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Hospital del Mar, Department of Surgery, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
- Marta Gimeno
- Hospital del Mar Research Institute (IMIM), Section of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Hospital del Mar, Department of Surgery, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
- Javier Osorio
- Section of Esophagogastric and Bariatric Surgery, Hospital Clinic, Department of Surgery, Universitat de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
- Maria Bencivenga
- Department of Surgery, General and Upper G.I. Surgery Division, University of Verona, 37126 Verona, Italy
- Uberto Fumagalli Romario
- Digestive Surgery, European Institute of Oncology, IRCCS, 20122 Milan, Italy
- Riccardo Rosati
- Department of GI Surgery, IRCCS, San Raffaele Hospital, Vita-Salute University, 20135 Milan, Italy
- Paolo Morgagni
- GB Morgagni-L Pierantoni Surgical Department, 47121 Forli, Italy
- Suzanne Gisbertz
- Department of Surgery, University Medical Center, 1007 Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Wojciech P. Polkowski
- Department of Surgical Oncology, Medical University of Lublin, 20-080 Lublin, Poland
- Lucio Lara Santos
- Experimental Pathology and Therapeutics Group and Surgical Oncology Department, Portuguese Institute of Oncology, 4200-072 Porto, Portugal
- Piotr Kołodziejczyk
- Department of Surgery I, Jagiellonian University, 31-007 Krakow, Poland
- Wojciech Kielan
- 2nd Department of General and Oncological Surgery, Wroclaw Medical University, 50-367 Wroclaw, Poland
- Rossella Reddavid
- Department of Oncology, Division of Surgical Oncology and Digestive Surgery, University of Turin, San Luigi University Hospital, Orbassano, 10043 Turin, Italy
- Johanna W. van Sandick
- Department of Surgery, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Antoni van Leeuwenhoek Hospital, 1066 Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Gian Luca Baiocchi
- General Surgery Unit, Department of Clinical and Experimental Sciences, University of Brescia, ASST Cremona, 26100 Cremona, Italy
- Ines Gockel
- Department of Visceral, Transplant, Thoracic and Vascular Surgery, University Hospital of Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
- Andrew Davies
- Department of Digestive Surgery, Guy’s & St Thomas’ National Health Service Foundation Trust, London SE1 7EH, UK
- Bas P. L. Wijnhoven
- Department of Surgery, Erasmus University Medical Center, 3015 Rotterdam, The Netherlands
- Daniel Reim
- Department of Surgery, School of Medicine and Health, Technical University of Munich, 81675 Munich, Germany
- Paulo Costa
- Department of General Surgery, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, Hospital Garcia de Orta, 1649-028 Lisboa, Portugal
- William H. Allum
- Department of Surgery, Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, London SW3 6JJ, UK
- Guillaume Piessen
- Department of Digestive and Oncological Surgery, University Lille, Claude Huriez University Hospital, 59037 Lille, France
- John V. Reynolds
- Department of Surgery, Trinity College Dublin, St. James’s Hospital, D08 W9RT Dublin, Ireland
- Stefan P. Mönig
- Division of Abdominal Surgery, University Hospital of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
- Paul M. Schneider
- Center for Visceral, Thoracic and Specialized Tumor Surgery, Hirslanden Medical Center, 5000 Zurich, Switzerland
- Elisenda Garsot
- Department of Surgery, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Hospital Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol, 08916 Barcelona, Spain
- Emma Eizaguirre
- Department of Surgery, Hospital Universitario de Donostia, 20014 Donostia, Spain
- Mònica Miró
- Department of Surgery, Hospital Universitari de Bellvitge, 08907 L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Spain
- Sandra Castro
- Department of Surgery, Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona, Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron, 08035 Barcelona, Spain
- Coro Miranda
- Department of Surgery, Hospital Universitario de Navarra, 31008 Pamplona, Spain
- Xavier Monzonis-Hernández
- Department of Pathology, Hospital Universitario del Mar, Cancer Research Program, Hospital del Mar Research Institute (IMIM), 08003 Barcelona, Spain
- Manuel Pera
- Hospital del Mar Research Institute (IMIM), Section of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Hospital del Mar, Department of Surgery, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
- on behalf of the Spanish EURECCA Esophagogastric Cancer Group and the European GASTRODATA Study Group
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers16132463
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 16,
no. 13
p. 2463
Abstract
Background: Radical gastrectomy remains the main treatment for gastric cancer, despite its high mortality. A clinical predictive model of 90-day mortality (90DM) risk after gastric cancer surgery based on the Spanish EURECCA registry database was developed using a matching learning algorithm. We performed an external validation of this model based on data from an international multicenter cohort of patients. Methods: A cohort of patients from the European GASTRODATA database was selected. Demographic, clinical, and treatment variables in the original and validation cohorts were compared. The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) for a random forest model. Results: The validation cohort included 2546 patients from 24 European hospitals. The advanced clinical T- and N-category, neoadjuvant therapy, open procedures, total gastrectomy rates, and mean volume of the centers were significantly higher in the validation cohort. The 90DM rate was also higher in the validation cohort (5.6%) vs. the original cohort (3.7%). The AUC in the validation model was 0.716. Conclusion: The externally validated model for predicting the 90DM risk in gastric cancer patients undergoing gastrectomy with curative intent continues to be as useful as the original model in clinical practice.
Keywords
