Simulation and forecasting CTLs response effectualness against global dynamics of SARS-CoV-2/HIV coinfection

Abstract

Quantifying the dynamical traits and harshness of SARS-CoV-2/HIV coinfection, a modified deterministic seven compartmental mathematical model is framed at cellular level encapsulating the interrelationships between epithelial cells (predominant target cells of COVID-19 infection), CD4+ T cells (target cells of HIV/AIDS infection), SARS-CoV-2 virions, HIV virions and HIV-specific CTL response. As a way to comprehend the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2/HIV coinfection and to provide prediction of model outcomes, the positivity, boundedness and existence conditions of the biologically feasible equilibrium points have been studied. The criteria of local stability and global stability of the coinfection system around the non-negative equilibrium points have been investigated and the analytical results are enhanced numerically. To measure the influence of the model parameters in SARS-CoV-2/HIV transmission dynamics, sensitivity analysis has been performed. Semi-relative sensitivity analysis demonstrates the maximum deviation of the concentration of infected epithelial cells due to changes in the model parameters and states that six parameters are most sensitive. The numerical simulation stipulates that the COVID-19 infection is likely to be died out from a HIV patient body by increasing the apoptosis of infected epithelial cells and that is possible through the proliferation of the CD4+ T cells count of an individual living with HIV via antiretroviral therapy (ART). Additionally, elevated concentration of CD4+ T cells in people living with HIV assists in heightening the CTLs response to combat COVID-19 and other opportunistic infections.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• HIV/AIDS
• Coinfection
• CTLs
• Semi-relative sensitivity