Analysis of SEIR-type models used at the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic reported in high-impact journals

Abstract

Introduction The Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) mathematical-epidemiological model has been exhaustively used since de beggining of the COVID-19 pandemic. These models intended to predict hospital burden and evaluate health measures to contain its spread. In this sense, flaws have been evidenced in the predictions of the first published models. It is considered necessary to evaluate the differences in the approach and verification of the models. Objectives We carried out a systematic review of the articles published in journals indexed in the Web of Science, of the first quartile and with an impact factor greater than two, that met the selection and inclusion criteria following the PRISMA-ScR standards. We included a total of 32 articles, which were evaluated according to demographic characteristics such as the month of receipt and publication, the country of origin of the information, the subject matter of the journal, and the characteristics of the modeling such as the presence of additional compartments, graphical analysis, conceptual model approach, interpretation of the basic reproductive number, and estimation of parameters. Methods Articles published in medical and health journals were predominant from February to July 2020. These articles most frequently used data from China and mostly focused on SEIR or full quarantine compartment models. The articles published in journals in mathematics were predominant from August to December 2020. Models used data from different world regions, considering a greater diversity of compartments such as asymptomatic patients or partial or complete quarantine. Results The articles analyzed mostly use SEIR-type models expanded with additional compartments. There are discrepancies in the breadth and methodological quality of the articles published according to the journal’s subject matter. The unification of quality criteria for describing the models in any journal is recommended. Conclusions The articles analyzed mostly use SEIR-type models expanded with additional compartments. There are discrepancies in the breadth and methodological quality of the articles published according to the journal’s subject matter. The unification of quality criteria for describing the models in any journal is recommended.

Keywords

• epidemiology
• mathematics