The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to Analyze Soybean Prices in Indonesia

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to observe factors that affecting domestic soybean prices, including government intervention through BULOG. By using Bound Testing Cointegration method with ARDL approach. In the short term the world soybean price variables in the t-period and exchange rate affect the domestic soybean prices positively and significantly. The variable volume of soybean imports, GDP, and the role of BULOG as sole importer in the t-period does not affect the domestic soybean price significantly. In the long run, the t-period import tariff has a negative and significant effect.