Causes of uncertainties in the representation of the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone in CMIP5 models

Abstract

Open-ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) occur in regions with high biological productivity and weak ventilation. They restrict marine habitats and alter biogeochemical cycles. Global models generally show a large model–data misfit with regard to oxygen. Reliable statements about the future development of OMZs and the quantification of their interaction with climate change are currently not possible. One of the most intense OMZs worldwide is located in the Arabian Sea (AS). We give an overview of the main model deficiencies with a detailed comparison of the historical state of 10 climate models from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that present our present-day understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes. Most of the models show a general underestimation of the OMZ volume in the AS compared to observations that is caused by an overly shallow layer of oxygen-poor water in the models. The deviation of oxygen values in the deep AS is the result of oxygen levels that are too high simulated in the Southern Ocean formation regions of Indian Ocean Deep Water in the models compared to observations and uncertainties in the deepwater mass transport from the Southern Ocean northward into the AS. Differences in simulated water mass properties and ventilation rates of Red Sea Water and Persian Gulf Water cause different mixing in the AS and thus influence the intensity of the OMZ. These differences in ventilation rates also point towards variations in the parameterizations of the overflow from the marginal seas among the models. The results of this study are intended to foster future model improvements regarding the OMZ in the AS.