Comparative evaluation of daily streamflow prediction by ANN and SWAT models in two karst watersheds in central south Texas

Abstract

This work compares the accuracy of streamflow estimated by a data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) and the physically based soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The models were applied in two small watersheds, one highly urbanized and the other primarily covered with evergreen forest and shrubs, in the San Antonio region of central south Texas, where karst geologic features are prevalent. Both models predicted daily streamflow in the urbanized watershed very well, with the ANN and SWAT having the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) values of 0.76 and 0.72 in the validation period, respectively. However, both models predicted streamflow poorly in the nonurban watershed. The NSE values of the ANNs significantly improved when a time series autoregressive model structure using historical streamflow data was implemented in the nonurban watershed. The SWAT model only achieved trivial performance improvement after using the SWAT-CUP SUFI-2 calibration procedure. This result suggests that an ANN model may be more suitable for short-term streamflow forecasting in watersheds heavily affected by karst features where the complex processes of rapid groundwater recharge and discharge strongly influence surface water flow. HIGHLIGHTS The ANN models outperformed the SWAT models by varying degrees in the two karstified watersheds in central Texas.; The calibrated SWAT and ANN models performed better in the urban watershed while having poor statistical performance in the rural watershed.; Applying the correction factor approach caused different extents of improvement in statistical results when a relatively higher uncertainty level was assumed.;

Keywords

• artificial neural network (ann)
• karst watersheds
• measurement and model uncertainty
• rainfall-runoff modeling
• soil and water assessment tool (swat)
• streamflow prediction