Pressure and Temperature Prediction of Oil Pipeline Networks Based on a Mechanism-Data Hybrid Driven Method

Abstract

To ensure the operational safety of oil transportation stations, it is crucial to predict the impact of pressure and temperature before crude oil enters the pipeline network. Accurate predictions enable the assessment of the pipeline’s load-bearing capacity and the prevention of potential safety incidents. Most existing studies primarily focus on describing and modeling the mechanisms of the oil flow process. However, monitoring data can be skewed by factors such as instrument aging and pipeline friction, leading to inaccurate predictions when relying solely on mechanistic or data-driven approaches. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a Temporal-Spatial Three-stream Temporal Convolutional Network (TS-TTCN) model that integrates mechanistic knowledge with data-driven methods. Building upon Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), the TS-TTCN model synthesizes mechanistic insights into the oil transport process to establish a hybrid driving mechanism. In the temporal dimension, it incorporates real-time operating parameters and applies temporal convolution techniques to capture the time-series characteristics of the oil transportation pipeline network. In the spatial dimension, it constructs a directed topological map based on the pipeline network’s node structure to characterize spatial features. Data analysis and experimental results show that the Three-stream Temporal Convolutional Network (TTCN) model, which uses a Tanh activation function, achieves an error rate below 5%. By analyzing and validating real-time data from the Dongying oil transportation station, the proposed hybrid model proves to be more stable, reliable, and accurate under varying operating conditions.

Keywords

• mechanistic knowledge
• data-driven
• pressure and temperature prediction
• deep learning