Predictability of tropical Pacific decadal variability is dominated by oceanic Rossby waves

Abstract

Abstract Despite its pronounced global impacts, tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) is poorly predicted by current climate models due to model deficiencies and a limited understanding of its underlying mechanisms. Using observational data and a hierarchy of model simulations including decadal hindcasts, we find that decadal isopycnal depth variability driven by oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Pacific provides the most important source of predictability for TPDV. The predictability arising from initial isopycnal depth conditions is further amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling and variations in the strength of subtropical cells in the Pacific throughout the decadal forecasts. Regional initialization experiments that effectively isolate the impact of different ocean basins on TPDV predictability highlight the essential role of the tropical Pacific. This study enhances our understanding of the mechanisms governing TPDV predictability, offering crucial insights for improving the accuracy of decadal predictions.