Revue d’Elevage et de Médecine Vétérinaire des Pays Tropicaux (Apr 2000)
Livestock sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, from the independences to 2020. III. Demand and supply projections for year 2020 and suggested responses to the necessary development of animal husbandry
Abstract
Trends in animal production between 1964 and 1994 indicate a decrease in available proteins per inhabitant per day and the small share that sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) holds in the world market of animal products. Projections from 1994 to 2020 were calculated upholding today’s consumption levels, integrating population growth, city expansion and households’ income levels. Global meat consumption should increase by 3.9% per year, that of dairy products and eggs by 3.3%. Depending on available animal feed resources, supply could multiply by 1.3, 4.25, 1.75 and 3.1 the production of red meat, white meat, milk and eggs, respectively. Several types of consumption were observed according to the subregion and the amount of animal proteins consumed per inhabitant per day varied greatly, from 4.2 g in the Central zone to 13.8 g in the IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Drought) zone. The consumption evolution by products shows a high increase in white meat consumption in most zones. This global assessment of the supply evolution may seem pessimistic. It should not minimize the actions already taken. In thirty years, meat production has more than doubled and dairy production has been multiplied by 1.8. To anticipate the demand in one generation, i.e. in 2020, three factors that highly affect its growth must be considered: population growth, urbanization and the rise of living standards. The authors formulate the hypothesis that individual consumption of animal products cannot continue to drop in SSA where undernourishment is already present. The factors affecting the supply evolution concern world trade agreements and evolution factors within SSA (regionalization…). In conclusion, it appears that animal productions should be intensified following the organization of specialists, privatization, infrastructures…
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