Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 disease dynamics: Interaction between immune system and SARS-CoV-2 within host

Abstract

SARS-COV-2 (Coronavirus) viral growth kinetics within-host become a key fact to understand the COVID-19 disease progression and disease severity since the year 2020. Quantitative analysis of the viral dynamics has not yet been able to provide sufficient information on the disease severity in the host. The SARS-CoV-2 dynamics are therefore important to study in the context of immune surveillance by developing a mathematical model. This paper aims to develop such a mathematical model to analyse the interaction between the immune system and SARS-CoV-2 within the host. The model is developed to explore the viral load dynamics within the host by considering the role of natural killer cells and T-cell. Through analytical simplifications, the model is found well-posed and asymptotically stable at disease-free equilibrium. The numerical results demonstrate that the influx of external natural killer (NK) cells alone or integrating with anti-viral therapy plays a vital role in suppressing the SARS-CoV-2 growth within-host. Also, within the host, the virus can not grow if the virus replication rate is below a threshold limit. The developed model will contribute to understanding the disease dynamics and help to establish various potential treatment strategies against COVID-19.

Keywords

• mers-cov
• sars-cov-2
• covid-19
• mathematical model
• immune system
• basic reproduction number