Equatorial spread-F forecasting model with local factors using the long short-term memory network

Abstract

Abstract The predictability of the nighttime equatorial spread-F (ESF) occurrences is essential to the ionospheric disturbance warning system. In this work, we propose ESF forecasting models using two deep learning techniques: artificial neural network (ANN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). The ANN and LSTM models are trained with the ionogram data from equinoctial months in 2008 to 2018 at Chumphon station (CPN), Thailand near the magnetic equator, where the ESF onset typically occurs, and they are tested with the ionogram data from 2019. These models are trained especially with new local input parameters such as vertical drift velocity of the F-layer height (Vd) and atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) collected at CPN station together with global parameters of solar and geomagnetic activity. We analyze the ESF forecasting models in terms of monthly probability, daily probability and occurrence, and diurnal predictions. The proposed LSTM model can achieve the 85.4% accuracy when the local parameters: Vd and AGW are utilized. The LSTM model outperforms the ANN, particularly in February, March, April, and October. The results show that the AGW parameter plays a significant role in improvements of the LSTM model during post-midnight. When compared to the IRI-2016 model, the proposed LSTM model can provide lower discrepancies from observational data. Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Equatorial spread-F
• Equatorial spread-F forecasting model
• Artificial neural network
• Long short-term memory
• IRI-2016 model