Models and Forecasts of Outflows from Unemployment in the Kuiavsko-Pomorskie Voivodship

Abstract

The outflow from unemployment is defined as the number of persons who were excluded from the register of public employment services in a given reporting period. Employment outflows from unemployment to employment are of particular importance. The aim of this article is an econometric analysis of the factors influencing the outflows from unemployment in the Kuiavsko-Pomorskie voivodship in the years 1999-2016 and forecasting for 2017. The obtained results clearly indicate that the congruent dynamic model is the appropriate tool for causal analysis of the outflow from unemployment. The forecasts obtained on this basis are characterized by high accuracy. Forecasting results were compared with the expert forecast.

Keywords

• outflow from unemployment, econometric model, expert forecast