Application of the DEMATEL method for quantitative analysis of risk factors for railway investments in Poland.

Abstract

The paper presents the results of research on the influence of risk factors on the implementation of railway investments in Poland (build stage) and deals with a detailed diagnosis of relation between factors. The application of DEcision MAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method for the analyses allowed to develop a cause-and-effect model of key factors and analyse the importance of the factors. Eleven factors identified in eariel studies as the most important risk factors were examined. It was found that the factors: errors in the preparation of tender documents (10.38%), errors in project documentation (10.02%), improperly estimated time of completion of the investment by the Employer (9.82%), internal regulations of PKP Polskie Koleje Państwowe S.A. (Polish State Railways) not coordinated with the provisions of contracts (9.51%) have the highest degree of importance. Factors: too many external institutions involved in the investment process and internal regulations of PKP Polskie Koleje Państwowe S.A. (Polish State Railways) not coordinated with the provisions of contracts, have the greatest net impact on the other factors. The relations between the factors and factors importance are valuable knowledge for engineers, enabling the project to be implemented according to the planned schedule and investment cost.