Измерение, мониторинг, управление, контроль (Dec 2023)
ASSESSMENT OF THE ACCURACY OF FORECASTING THE STATE OF THE TERRITORIAL TECHNOSPHERE IN THE INFORMATION-MEASURING AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WELFARE OF HUMANS
Abstract
Background. For a reasonable choice of environmental and therapeutic and preventive measures in order to ensure the ecological well-being of a person, it is necessary to model and predict changes in the state of the territorial technosphere as a result of technogenic impact. These processes must be provided with technical and information resources that allow accurate and reliable forecasting. The author proposes a simplified scheme of the informationmeasuring and control system for ensuring the ecological well-being of a person, which allows receiving and processing data on the state of the elements of the territorial technosphere (a person, the environment, an object of the technosphere) and, based on them, making a forecast about a change in the ecological well-being of a person. Forecasting is proposed to be carried out on the basis of an improved Lotka – Volterra model. The purpose of this work is to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the results and the correctness of using the Lotka-Volterra model for modeling and predicting the ecological well-being of a person. Materials and methods. To assess the accuracy and reliability of modeling and predicting the ecological well-being of a person, the cubic spline approximation method was used. Results. The calculated correlation and determination coefficients indicate the presence of a strong (high) relationship between the studied quantities, and the average approximation error confirms that the cubic spline approximation model is chosen correctly, correctly describes the relationship between the studied quantities and ensures the accuracy of the forecast. Conclusion. Thus, the study showed the correctness of using the model Lotka – Volterra for modeling and predicting the ecological well-being of a person.
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