Modelling contagious viral dynamics: a kinetic approach based on mutual utility

Abstract

The temporal evolution of a contagious viral disease is modelled as the dynamic progression of different classes of population with individuals interacting pairwise. This interaction follows a binary mechanism typical of kinetic theory, wherein agents aim to improve their condition with respect to a mutual utility target. To this end, we introduce kinetic equations of Boltzmann-type to describe the time evolution of the probability distributions of the multi-agent system. The interactions between agents are defined using principles from price theory, specifically employing Cobb-Douglas utility functions for binary exchange and the Edgeworth box to depict the common exchange area where utility increases for both agents. Several numerical experiments presented in the paper highlight the significance of this mechanism in driving the phenomenon toward endemicity.

Keywords

• kinetic models
• epidemic models
• irreversible processes
• cobb-douglas utility function
• edgeworth box
• boltzmann-type equations