Exploring the Impact of Remittance and Economic Growth on Inflation

Abstract

This study investigates the influence of remittance income and economic growth on the inflation rate in South Asian Association for Regional Corporation (SAARC) countries. Remittance inflows have a double effect on the economy's inflation rate: firstly, it increases consumer spending capacity, driving up demand for goods and services, which can lead to higher prices; secondly the influx of foreign currency can cause local currency appreciation, raising import costs and contributing to inflation. While previous studies have focused primarily on how inflation hinders economic growth, this study seeks to understand how economic growth causes inflation from the other side. Economic growth boosts consumer and business spending, increasing demand for goods and services, which can increase prices. Furthermore, higher demand for resources and labor can raise production costs, further contributing to inflation. The correlation between remittance income and inflation has been extensively documented, but the impact of economic growth on inflation remains to be determined. The study is based on descriptive and exploratory research design and driven by a positivist research philosophy. The present study is based on secondary data collected from World Bank reports and the countries' economic surveys. This study uses an unbalanced panel dataset of 272 data points from eight member countries of SAARC. Basic econometric techniques such as covariance analysis, panel unit root testing, panel autoregressive distributed lag model, and scaled coefficient analysis are employed. The remittance income is only statistically significant at the 10 percent significance level. A one percent increase in remittance income leads to a 0.284 percent increase in inflation over the long run. The growth rate of gross domestic product plays a crucial role in setting inflation. One percent rise in gross domestic product growth leads to a 0.3405 percent increase in inflation in the long term. The error correction term exhibits a negative and statistically significant relationship. The coefficient size suggested that around 65.14 percent of the disequilibrium was rectified in each cycle. The current year's lagged gross domestic product growth negatively and statistically significantly impacts economic growth. One percent rise in gross domestic product growth led to 0.3308 percent fall in inflation in the short term across SAARC countries. The results indicate that remittance income has a minimal long-term effect on inflation in SAARC nations, whereas gross domestic product growth substantially impacts inflation. Policymakers should prioritize promoting sustainable economic growth to mitigate inflationary pressures effectively.

Keywords

• migrant
• inflationary
• cost-push inflation
• interconnected
• mitigate