Diversity (Oct 2024)
Comment on Krüger, L. Decreasing Trends of Chinstrap Penguin Breeding Colonies in a Region of Major and Ongoing Rapid Environmental Changes Suggest Population Level Vulnerability. <i>Diversity</i> 2023, <i>15</i>, 327
Abstract
Historical data on chinstrap penguin (Pygoscelis antarctica) breeding population sizes are sparse and sometimes highly uncertain, making it hard to estimate true population trajectories. Yet, information on population trends is desirable as changes in population size can help inform conservation assessments. Recently, Krüger (2023) (Diversity 2023, 15, 327) used chinstrap penguin nest count data to predict breeding colony size trends between 1960 and 2020, to estimate whether the level of population change within three generations exceeded IUCN Red List Criteria for “Vulnerable” populations. Chinstrap penguin population trends are an important research topic, but we caution that Krüger (2023)’s statistical analyses (intended to form the foundation for drawing valid, evidence-based inferences from sparse data) contain fundamental errors that invalidate that paper’s findings. We discuss oversights in several key steps (data processing, exploratory data analysis, model fitting, model evaluation, and prediction) of that paper’s analysis to help others detect and avoid some of the pitfalls associated with estimating population trends via mixed models. We also show through reanalysis that improved statistical modelling can yield better predictions of chinstrap penguin population trends, at least within the range of observed data. This case study highlights (1) the profound influence that seemingly minor differences in modelling procedures (both unintentional errors and other decisions) can have on predictions of population trends, and (2) the substantial inherent uncertainty in population trend predictions derived from sparse, heterogenous data.
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