River flow prediction based on improved machine learning method: Cuckoo Search-Artificial Neural Network

Abstract

Abstract One of the largest hydropower facilities currently in operation in Malaysia is the Terengganu hydroelectric facility. As a result, for hydropower generation to be sustainable, future water availability in hydropower plants must be known. Therefore, it is necessary to precisely estimate how the river flow will alter as a result of changing rainfall patterns. Finding the best value for the hyper-parameters is one of the problems with machine learning algorithms, which have lately been adopted by many academics. In this research, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is integrated with a nature-inspired optimizer, namely Cuckoo search algorithm (CS-ANN). The performance of the proposed algorithm then will be examined based on statistical indices namely Root-Mean-Square Error (RSME) and Determination Coefficient (R 2). Then, the accuracy of the proposed model will be then examined with the stand-alone Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The statistical indices results indicate that the proposed Hybrid CS-ANN model showed an improvement based on R 2 value as compared to ANN model with R 2 of 0.900 at training stage and R 2 of 0.935 at testing stage. RMSE value, for ANN model, is 127.79 m3/s for training stage and 12.7 m3/s at testing stage. While for the proposed Hybrid CS-ANN model, RMSE value is equal to 121.7 m3/s for training stage and 10.95 m3/s for testing stage. The results revealed that the proposed model outperformed the stand-alone model in predicting the river flow with high level of accuracy. Although the proposed model could be applied in different case study, there is a need to tune the model internal parameters when applied in different case study.

Keywords

• River flow
• Hydropower Plant
• ANN
• Hybrid CS-ANN