Risk dynamics modeling of reservoir dam break for safety control in the emergency response process

Abstract

Dam break is an accident that may heavily threat downstream residents' life and property safety, especially in China. As revealed by accident investigation statistics, both flawed organizational behavior and inadequate downstream resident risk awareness have affected the safety risk of reservoir dams. Multiple information transferring mode and dynamic processes perform with the characteristics of social-technical systems. Based on the system dynamics approach, this study proposed a risk causation model aiming for factor interactions involving organizational, human, and technical system levels. The derived simulation model represented the historical risk evolution process of Gouhou reservoir in China and the rationality of the proposed model was verified. To further improve the efficiency of the organizational response and monitor real-time dam safety, a software tool called Dam Emergency Response Aids (DERA) was constructed to evaluate the potential safety benefits of risk control measures, and to overcome the defects of static emergency plans. By integrating relevant professional modules and data, the mobile application (APP) has been applied on the Jinniu Mountain reservoir dam in Nanjing of China and helped to maintain its excellent safety operation until now. It shows that the risk dynamics model proposed can improve the abilities of dam operating management organization for more effective responses under emergency circumstances. HIGHLIGHTS This research helps to remind the safety responsible organizations to focus their investment on publicizing and downstream resident training, which will increase their awareness of risks, enhance public understanding of the evacuation process and risk pre-judgment criteria, and maintain trusts in organization decision-making and community cohesion.;

Keywords

• dam break
• intelligent emergency decision-making
• risk dynamics
• scenario simulation
• software tool