Random Network Models to Predict the Long-Term Impact of HPV Vaccination on Genital Warts

Abstract

The Human papillomaviruses (HPV) vaccine induces a herd immunity effect in genital warts when a large number of the population is vaccinated. This aspect should be taken into account when devising new vaccine strategies, like vaccination at older ages or male vaccination. Therefore, it is important to develop mathematical models with good predictive capacities. We devised a sexual contact network that was calibrated to simulate the Spanish epidemiology of different HPV genotypes. Through this model, we simulated the scenario that occurred in Australia in 2007, where 12–13 year-old girls were vaccinated with a three-dose schedule of a vaccine containing genotypes 6 and 11, which protect against genital warts, and also a catch-up program in women up to 26 years of age. Vaccine coverage were 73 % in girls with three doses and with coverage rates decreasing with age until 52 % for 20–26 year-olds. A fast 59 % reduction in the genital warts diagnoses occurred in the model in the first years after the start of the program, similar to what was described in the literature.

Keywords

• human papillomavirus
• network model
• vaccination strategies