Calibration of snow avalanche mathematical models using the data of real avalanches in the Ile (Zailiyskiy) Alatau Range

Abstract

The calibration of the dry friction and turbulent friction coefficients is necessary for computer simulation of avalanches. The method of back calculation based on data on actual avalanches is used for this purpose. The article presents the results of the calibration of the Eglit’s and RAMMS models for Ile Alatau range condi‑ tions. The range is located in Kazakhstan. The data on six avalanches in the same avalanche site were used. Five avalanches were dry, and one avalanche was wet. Avalanches volume varied from 2000 to 12000 m3. Maximum speed avalanches were between 15 and 30 m/s, the flow height – from 3 to 10 m. Series of back calculations with different values of the friction coefficients was made to obtain the calibrated coeffi‑ cients. The calibrated coefficients were chosen under condition of the best fit with real avalanches. The cal‑ ibrated coefficients were following. For the Eglit’s model for dry avalanches of the volume 2000–5000 m3 μ = 0.46÷0.48, k = 0.005–0.006, and the volume 8000–12000 m3 μ = 0.38÷0.42, k = 0.002÷0.003. For RAMMS model for dry avalanches of the volume of 2000–5000 m3 μ (dry friction coefficient) = 0.35÷0.4, ξ (viscous friction coefficient) = 1500÷2000 m/s2, and the volume 8,000–12,000 m3 μ = 0.3÷0.35, ξ = 2000÷3000 m/s2. For wet avalanches of the volume 12,000 m3 μ = 0.35, ξ = 1500 m/s2. The work on the calibration will be con‑ tinued to obtain the friction coefficients for the Eglit’s and RAMMS models. The additional data on real ava‑ lanches will be needed for this purpose.

Keywords

• calibration of models
• mathematical models
• snow avalanches